Crash Game Odds Table: The Probability of Every Multiplier
In a crash game the chance of a round reaching multiplier m is approximately the game's RTP divided by m. At Aviator's fixed 97% RTP that means about a 48.5% chance of reaching 2x, 9.7% of reaching 10x, and 0.97% of reaching 100x, or roughly 1 round in 103.
P(reach m) = 0.97 / m · Source: Spribe game page, read 28 Jul 2026 · Last verified 15 Aug 2026The table below applies the same formula to Aviator, Stake Crash, Spaceman and both ends of JetX’s operator-set range, so you can compare any target multiplier across all four games.
The formula, and why it works
Crash games are built so that the expected return is the same whatever multiplier you aim for. If you cash out at target m, you win m times your stake with probability p and lose your stake otherwise. For the long-run return to equal the RTP, p must be RTP divided by m. That is why no cash-out target is smarter than another: a low target wins often and pays little, a high target wins rarely and pays a lot, and both settle at the same house edge.
One caveat: the formula describes the theoretical distribution. Individual providers may round, cap, or slightly adjust the very top of the curve, and an operator-configurable game like JetX changes the whole table depending on which RTP build the casino runs.
Crash game odds table: probability of reaching each multiplier
| Target | Aviator (97%) | Stake Crash (99%) | Spaceman (95%) | JetX low (96.2%) | JetX top (98.9%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5x | 64.7% | 66.0% | 63.3% | 64.1% | 65.9% |
| 2x | 48.5% | 49.5% | 47.5% | 48.1% | 49.5% |
| 3x | 32.3% | 33.0% | 31.7% | 32.1% | 33.0% |
| 5x | 19.4% | 19.8% | 19.0% | 19.2% | 19.8% |
| 10x | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% |
| 20x | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| 50x | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% |
| 100x | 0.97% | 0.99% | 0.95% | 0.96% | 0.99% |
| 1,000x | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% |
The same odds expressed as “one round in every N”
Percentages flatten out at the tail, so the reciprocal is often the clearer way to read them. For Aviator at 97%:
| Target | Roughly one round in |
|---|---|
| 2x | 2 rounds |
| 5x | 5 rounds |
| 10x | 10 rounds |
| 20x | 21 rounds |
| 50x | 52 rounds |
| 100x | 103 rounds |
| 1,000x | 1,031 rounds |
What the table tells you about strategy
Read across any row and the differences are small: at 10x, the gap between the worst JetX build (9.6%) and Stake Crash (9.9%) is a third of a percentage point. Read down a column and the differences are enormous: 2x lands roughly every other round, 100x roughly once in a hundred. That is the real lesson. Your target multiplier decides the shape of your session, and the game you pick barely moves the odds at all. The one exception is choosing a high-RTP operator on JetX, which is the only decision here that measurably improves your expected return.
No cash-out pattern, streak reading or bet progression changes these numbers. The crash point is already determined when the round starts, and every target carries the same built-in house edge.
Quick answers
What are the odds of hitting 10x in Aviator? About 9.7%, or roughly one round in ten, derived from 0.97 divided by 10.
What are the odds of 100x in a crash game? Close to 1%, about one round in 103 at Aviator’s 97% RTP and one in 101 at Stake Crash’s 99%.
Which crash game has the best odds? Stake Crash at 99% RTP has the lowest house edge of the four, though a top-configured JetX at 98.9% is effectively equal. The differences are fractions of a percentage point at any given multiplier.
Does cashing out early improve my chances? It raises how often you win and lowers how much you win, and the two cancel out. Every target returns the same long-run percentage.
References
- Spribe, Aviator game rules and 97% RTP disclosure
- SmartSoft Gaming, JetX RTP range (96.2% to 98.9%, operator configurable)
- Pragmatic Play, Spaceman game information (95% RTP)
- Stake, Crash game and Provably Fair documentation (99% RTP)
Original analysis by the PlayStories editorial team. Probabilities computed as RTP divided by target multiplier. Reviewed by the PlayStories editorial team, last updated 15 August 2026. Informational only, not betting advice. 18+. Play responsibly.
More crash game analysis
- Aviator RTP explained
- JetX RTP and why it varies by operator
- Aviator vs JetX vs Spaceman compared
- Crash, the Stake Original at 99% RTP
- Aviator strategy: what you can control
Correction, 26 July 2026. This page previously gave Spaceman’s RTP as 96.50% and derived its probabilities from that figure. Pragmatic Play’s own game page states 95%. The figure and every number computed from it have been corrected. The 96.50% we published is widely repeated elsewhere and may reflect an earlier or alternative certified build; we publish the studio’s current stated figure and say so. See the RTP version problem and our verification method.
P(reach m) = RTP / mEvery multiplier probability on this page is computed exactly from the crash-curve identity P(reach m) = RTP divided by m. For a 97% RTP build that gives P(2x) = 0.485 and P(100x) = 0.0097. No sampling, no estimation: the identity is exact, and it is why expected value equals RTP at every cash-out target.
Full verification method · Editorial standards · Corrections are logged on the method page.
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